Casey Handmer is a huge solar bull and his estimate is that solar becomes cheaper than any other form of electricity even when generated from northern states by 2030 (likely sooner) Iirc solar is meaningfully more efficient (30-50%) in southern states, so it will likely make sense to place energy intensive workloads in locations with more direct sun. However, the cost of transmitting additional power is interesting and complex. Building out the grid (which runs close to capacity by some metric^) is expensive: transmission lines, transformers or substations, and acquiring land is obvious stuff. Plus the overhead of administration which is significant. So there's a lot of new behind-the-meter generation (ie electricity that never touches the grid)^^ With all that in mind, I expect energy intensive things will move south (if they have no other constraints. Eg cooling for data centers might be cheaper in northern climes. Some processing will make sense close to where materials are available) But a significant amount of new solar will still be used in northern states because it's going to be extremely cheap to build additional capacity. Especially capacity that is behind-the-meter. ^ but not others! Eg if you're willing to discuss tradeoffs you might find dozens of gw available most of the time https://www.hyperdimensional.co/p/out-of-thin-air ^^ patio11 has a good podcast about this https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/the-ai-energy-bottleneck-with-tim-fist/ Disclaimer: my employer apparently sponsored that episode
↙ time adjusted for second-chance
SSE sucks for transporting LLM tokens (zknill.io)
In general, I've found that people, even strangers, kind of look out for you. I've only had occasion to need this in America, but every time strangers have helped. What I found fascinating was that even late in the night, on a dark highway, a young woman would stop to assist. What a safe society. Two of those occasions are when I crashed on my skateboard, and when I crashed my car. Both times, a young woman stopped to help me[0]. In fact, I'd be hard pressed to say when people haven't been kind to me. A girl on a train gave me the book she finished reading. A homeless guy helped me push a car[2]. I left my car open once with everything inside and a passing woman closed it for me and left a note. But also the society built here assists competently when individuals cannot. After a motorcycle accident in the city, the ambulance was there to pick me up apparently (I wouldn't know, I have amnesia) within minutes. We've always stopped to help when we can and have many times (a few in SF here[2]) but it is gratifying that others are also like that. The other thing I like is that people don't mind asking for help. I was at the Safeway up in Diamond Heights, all in my motorcycle gear (which some can find intimidating) and this old lady asked for help with her car boot. Why on Earth would I know? But it turned out to be a quick fix and while I sorted the latch out, this other elderly couple talked to me about the husband's Ducati which he used to have. In fact, I have come to think about this non-kin pro-sociality as being some sort of sociocultural superpower among the societies that can practice it. It seems to me that the most successful societies practised this. Even in the age of empire, it seems some societies were more capable of pro-social outcomes. British imperialism was a brutal thing in many places and especially earlier in its time, but compared to intra-tribal violence among indigenous peoples it seems almost civilized. The bare minimum rise to civilization seems to have been to replace terminal fatal violence with non-terminal subjugation (which seems to have been a hard thing to achieve). The Maori left only a hundred or so Moriori alive, and ate and killed the rest. By comparison, the British had the Maori in parliament. Similarly, the father of the Charlie Kirk shooter encouraged him to give himself up: placing his kin at the mercy of his non-kin society. I think this kind of non-kin pro-sociality is where the magic is in a successful society. But producing that is hard. As an example, no matter how much a young woman would want to help a man waving her down on the side of the road, she should not do so in Somalia. American society (and many others) has solved, for the most part, the problem of stranger trust. That enables this kind of cooperation, which enables large-scale coordination, which helps a society prosper. This reminds me of what A Splendid Exchange says about the Qu'ran having rules on commerce and law: thereby allowing the Islamic world to prosper because any Muslim of the time could meet another Muslim of the time and know they lived by the same law (enforced by God, one presumes). This allowed stranger-trust across the seas. Overall, quite fascinating. These societal innovations are devices that last for some period of time and provide a massive boost to those societies. Certainly whatever Dutch system existed to enforce joint-stock capital, a secondary market, and derivatives allowed them to coordinate to be the power they were at the time[3]. I wonder what the next such device will be. The default of humanity seems to be to cooperate[4], so the hard part here is finding the device that fights exploitation of pro-sociality. 0: https://wiki.roshangeorge.dev/w/Blog/2024-08-14/Fearless_American_Women 1: https://wiki.roshangeorge.dev/w/Motorcycle_Accident 2: https://wiki.roshangeorge.dev/w/Blog/2025-02-20/Car_Breakdowns_in_SF 3: Though the flip side is the zielverkopers - people who turned labor into a tradable commodity but using what is in practice debt bondage 4: In some sense, all living beings are formed from cooperation
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