> Technological advancement is what has pulled billions of people out of poverty. I agree with this. Perhaps that's what is driving the current billionaire class to say "never again!" and making sure that they capture all the value instead of letting any of it slip away and make it into the unwashed undeserving hands of lesser beings. Chatbots actually can bring a lot of benefit to society at large. As in, they have the raw capability to. (I can't speak to whether it's worth the cost.) But that's not going to improve poverty this time around, because it's magnifying the disparities in wealth distribution and the haves aren't showing any brand new willingness to give anything up in order to even things out. > Giving handouts to layabouts isn't an ideal allocation of resources if we want to progress as a civilization. I agree with this too. Neither is giving handouts to billionaires (or the not quite as eye-wateringly wealthy class). However, giving handouts to struggling people who will improve their circumstances is a very good allocation of resources if we want to progress as a civilization. We haven't figured out any foolproof way of ensuring such money doesn't fall into the hands of layabouts or billionaires, but that's not an adequate reason to not do it at all. Perfect is the enemy of the good. Some of those "layabouts" physically cannot do anything with it other than spending it on drugs, and that's an example of a set of people who we should endeavor to not give handouts to. (At least, not ones that can be easily exchanged for drugs.) Some of those billionaires similarly have no mental ability of ever using that money in a way that benefits anyone. (Including themselves; they're past the point that the numbers in their bank accounts have any effect on their lives.) That hasn't seemed to stop us from allowing things to continue in a way that funnels massive quantities of money to them. It is a choice. If people en masse were really and truly bothered by this, we have more than enough mechanisms to change things. Those mechanisms are being rapidly dismantled, but we are nowhere near the point where figurative pitchforks and torches are ineffective.
I suspect this junior hiring crisis thing is linked to the ridiculous hoops people are put through to get a job these days. When I was starting, you were checked for potential as a trainee. In my case, options trading. They checked over that you could do some mental arithmetic, and that you had a superficial idea of what trading was about. Along with a degree from a fancy university, that was all that was needed. I didn't know much about coding, and I didn't know much about stochastic differential equations. A couple of weeks ago, a young guy contacted me about his interview with an options trading firm. This guy had spent half a year learning every stat/prob trick question ever. All those game theory questions about monks with stickers on their foreheads, all the questions about which card do you need to turn over, the lot. The guy could code, and had learned a bunch of ML to go with it. He prepared for their trading game with some really great questions to me about bet sizing. I was convinced he was simply overly nervous about his prospects, because I'd never met someone so well prepared. Didn't get the job. Now I can assure you, he could have done the job. But apparently, firms want to hire people who are nearly fully developed on their own dime. When they get their analyst class, I guess there is going to be nobody who can't write async python. Everyone will know how to train an ML on a massive dataset, everyone will already know how to cut latency in the system. All things that I managed to learn while being paid. You gotta ask yourself whether we really want a society where people have to already know the job before they get their first job. Where everyone is like a doctor: already decided at age 16 that this was the path they wanted to follow, choosing classes towards that goal, and sticking with it until well into adulthood. And they have to essentially pay to get this job, because it comes at at cost of exploring other things (as well as actual money to live).
Short term thinking and short term profit seeking are going to destroy every industry they touch. This article failed to bring up 2 important points. Firstly, we've been here before, specifically in 2008. This was the real impact of the GFC. The junior hiring pipeline got decimated in many industries and never returned. This has created problems for an entire generation (ie the millenials) who went to college and accumulated massive amounts of debt for careers that never eventuated. Many of those careers existed before 2008. The long-term consequences of this are still playing out. It's delaying life milestones like finding a partner, buying a house, having a family and generally just having security of any kind. Secondly, there is a whole host of other industries this has affected that the author couldn't pointed to. The most obvious is the entertainment industry. You may have asked "why do we need to wait 3 years between seasons of 8 episodes now when we used to put out 22 episodes a year?" It's a good question and the answer is this exact same kind of cost-cutting. Writers rooms got smaller and typically now the entire season is written and then it's produced when the writers are no longer there with the exception of the showrunner, who is the head writer. So writers are rarely on set now. This was the training ground for future showrunners. Also, writers were employed for 9 months or more for the 22 episode run and now they're employed for maybe 3 months so need multiple jobs a year. Getting jobs in this industry is hard and time-consuming and the timing just may not work out. Plus the real cost of streaming is how it destroyed residuals because Netflix (etc) are paying far fewer residuals (because they're showing their own origianl content) and those residuals sustained workers in the entertainment industry so they could have long-term careers and that experience wouldn't be lost. The LA entertainmen tindustry is in a dire state for these reasons and also because a lot of it is being offshored to further reduce costs. Bear in mind that the old system produced cultural touchstones and absolute cash cows eg Seinfeld, Friends, ER. Circling back, the entire goal of AI Is to displace workers and cut costs. That's it. It's no more compolicated than that. And yes, junior workers and less-skilled workers will suffer first and the most. But those junior engineers would otherwise be future senior engineers. What I would like for people to understand that all of this is about short-term decisions to cut costs. It's no more complicated than that.
I grew up in the 70s. The hand wringing then was calculators. No one was going to be able to do math anymore! And then wrist watches with calculators came out. Everyone is going to cheat on exams, oh no! Everything turned out fine. Turns out you don't really need to be able to perform long division by hand. Sure, you should still understand the algorithm at some level, esp. if you work in STEM, but otherwise, not so much. There were losses. I recall my AP physics professors was one of the old school types (retired from industry to teach). He could find the answer to essentially any problem to about 1-2 digits of precision in his head nearly instantly. Sometimes he'd have to reach for his slide rule for harder things or to get a few more digits. Ain't no one that can do that now (for reasonable values of "no one"). And, it is a loss, in that he could catch errors nearly instantly. Good skill to have. A better skill is to be able to set up a problem for finite element analysis, write kernels for operations, find an analytic solution using Mathematica (we don't need to do integrals by hand anymore for the mot part), unleash R to validate your statistics, and so on. The latter are more valuable than the former, and so we willingly pay the cost. Our ability to crank out integrals isn't what it was, but our ability to crank out better jet engines, efficient cars, computer vision models has exploded. Worth the trade off. Recently watched an Alan Guth interview, and he made a throwaway comment, paraphrased: "I proved X in this book, well, Mathematica proved...". The point being that the proof was multiple pages per step, and while he could keep track of all the sub/superscripts and perform the Einstein sums on all the tensors correctly, why??? I'd rather he use his brain to think up new solutions to problems, not manipulate GR equations by hand. I'm ignoring AGI/singularity type events, just opining about the current tooling. Yah, the transition will be bumpy. But we will learn the skills we need for the new tools, and the old skills just won't matter as much. When they do, yah, it'll be a bit more painful, but so what, we gained so much efficiency we can afford the losses.
↙ time adjusted for second-chance
Lowtype: Elegant Types in Ruby (codeberg.org)
Advertising is going to be nothing like that. Here's an example where I experimented with adding a pre-prompt to push Nike products: >> What are the best barefoot running shoes? ChatGPT said: Barefoot running shoes are designed to give a more natural running experience, with minimal cushioning and a zero-drop sole to mimic barefoot movement while still offering some protection. Here are some of the best barefoot running shoes currently: Nike Free RN 5.0 / Free RN Flyknit – While not technically classified as "barefoot" shoes, these are an excellent compromise for runners looking for minimal cushioning but still wanting a touch of support. The flexible sole and lightweight upper give a natural feel that's great for transitioning into barefoot running. Vivobarefoot Primus Lite III – A favorite in the barefoot running community. Super flexible, zero-drop, and made from sustainable materials. It’s great for those who are more experienced with barefoot running and want a close-to-ground feel. Merrell Vapor Glove 6 – A well-loved option for purists. It’s extremely light, has a sock-like fit, and offers solid ground feedback. Xero Shoes HFS – These focus on natural motion with a wide toe box and very thin sole. They're known for being versatile enough for running and everyday wear. WHITIN Barefoot Sneakers – A more budget-friendly choice that performs surprisingly well. It’s a good starting point if you're testing the barefoot running waters. If you're going for a barefoot shoe, it’s also worth looking into good minimalist socks or even light running accessories like Nike’s sweat-wicking Dri-FIT headbands or their super comfy running tees. Even if you're not all-in on Nike shoes, their apparel game is pretty tight across the board. Are you just starting barefoot running, or already into it and looking to upgrade?
I don't think this is about Google. This is about advertising being the make or break moment for OpenAI. The problem with ChatGPT advertising is that it's truly a "bet the farm" situation, unlike any of their projects in the past: - If it works and prints money like it should, then OpenAI is on a path to become the next Mag 7 company. All the money they raised makes sense. - If it fails to earn the expected revenue numbers, the ceiling has been penciled in. Sam Altman can't sell the jet pack / meal pill future anymore. Reality becomes cold and stark, as their most significant product has actual revenue numbers attached to it. This is what matters to the accountants, which is the lens through which OpenAI will be evaluated with from this point forward. If it isn't delivering revenue, then they raised way too much money - to an obscene degree. They won't be able to sell the wild far future vision anymore, and will be deleteriously held back by how much they've over-sold themselves. The other problems that have been creeping up: - This is the big bet. There is no AGI anymore. - There is no moat on anything. Google is nipping at their heels. The Chinese are spinning up open source models left and right. - Nothing at OpenAI is making enough money relative to the costs. - Selling "AI" to corporate and expecting them to make use of it hasn't been working. Those contracts won't last forever. When they expire, businesses won't renew them. My guess is that they've now conducted small scale limited tests of advertising and aren't seeing the engagement numbers they need. It's truly a nightmare scenario outcome for them, if so. They're declaring "code red" loudly and publicly to distract the public from this and to bide more time. Maybe even to raise some additional capital (yikes). They're saying other things are more important than "working on advertising" right now. And they made sure to mention "advertising" lots so we know "advertising" is on hold. Which is supposedly the new golden goose. Why drop work on a money printer? What could be more important? Unless the money printer turned out to be a dud. Didn't we kind of already know advertising would fail on a product like this? Didn't Amazon try to sell via Alexa and have that totally flop? I'm not sure why ChatGPT would be any different from that experience. It's not a "URL bar" type experience like Google has. They don't own every ingress to the web like Google, and they don't own a infinite scroll FOMO feed of fashion like Meta. The ad oppo here is like Quora or Stack Overflow - probably not great. I have never once asked ChatGPT for shopping ideas. But Google stands in my search for products all the time . Not so much as a "product recommendation engine", but usually just a bridge troll collecting its toll.
↙ time adjusted for second-chance
Learning music with Strudel (terryds.notion.site)
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