>I guess I have not thought critically why we couldn't use a Transcendental argument to support Descartes. The previous section within the Transcendental Dialectic that focuses on the nature of the soul goes into a refutation of Descartes' statement. Kant basically finds "I think therefore I am" to be a tautology that only works by equivocating the "I" in each clause. "I think" pretends that the "I" there is an object in the world which it then compares to the "I am" which is an object in the world. Kant argues that "I think" does not actually demonstrate an "I" that is an object but rather a redundant qualification of thinking. I am being a bit imprecise, so here is SEP's summary: >For in each case, Kant thinks that a feature of self-consciousness (the essentially subjectival, unitary and identical nature of the “I” of apperception) gets transmuted into a metaphysics of a self (as an object) that is ostensibly “known” through reason alone to be substantial, simple, identical, etc. This slide from the “I” of apperception to the constitution of an object (the soul) has received considerable attention in the secondary literature, and has fueled a great deal of attention to the Kantian theory of mind and mental activity. >The claim that the ‘I’ of apperception yields no object of knowledge (for it is not itself an object, but only the “vehicle” for any representation of objectivity as such) is fundamental to Kant’s critique of rational psychology. [1] https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/kant-metaphysics/#SouRatPsy
Microeconometrics tends to be quite rigorous and easy to validate. They won't hold up to physics levels of rigor, of course - probably a bit more at the medical studies level of rigor. David Card, Gary Becker, McFadden, etc. Rigor is also... there's something about letting perfect be the enemy of the good. If noone will apply math unless you can 100% reliably reproduce controlled experiments in a lab, the only thing left is people just talking about dialectics. The challenge is how to get as much rigor as possible. For instance, David Card saw New Jersey increase minimum wage. You generally can't truly conduct large-scale controlled social experiments, but he saw this as interesting. He looked at the NJ/PA area around Philadelphia as a somewhat unified labor market, but half of it just had its minimum wage increased - which he looked at to study as a "natural" experiment, with PA as the control group and NJ as the experimental group, to investigate what happened to the labor market when the minimum wage increased. Having a major metro area split down the middle allowed for a lot of other concerns to be factored out, since the only difference was what side of the river you happened to be on. He had lots of other studies looking at things like that, trying to find ways to get controlled-experiment like behavior where one can't necessarily do a true controlled experiment, but trying to get as close as possible, to be as rigorous as is possible. Is that as ideal as a laboratory experiment? Hell no. But it's way closer than just arguing dialectics.
I think it's likely that they'll see justice in a chaotic way , ie not connected to the specific crime. Most likely outcome is that they make huge paper profits that are then absolutely worthless because the dollar collapses and the property rights that enforce the wealth they gained from these transactions disappear as the government is toppled. Another likely outcome is that they get in the habit of doing criminal things that piss people off, piss the wrong person off, and then get offed. There was an AskHistorians post about the French revolution a few years ago that really stuck with me: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/w18qt5/what_led_to_the_fall_of_robespierre/ > Stability had hardly been a hallmark of the Revolution til that point, and really what we have seen is a revolving door of men rising to the summit of power, only to realize that once your head is above the rest it's a prime target for the guillotine. Of the early years of the Revolution, virtually any man who had been considered a leader was either dead or in exile. The King was executed in January of 1793. The Girondin, formerly indistinguishable from the 'left,' went en masse to the guillotine in October 1793. Danton & friends (dubbed by Robespierre 'the indulgents'), the literal authors of the Insurrection of August 10th which overthrew the King and declared the Republic, the 'giant of the Revolution,' had been executed in April 1794. Interspersed with these prominent deaths were hundreds of individuals who had been important players in the Revolution, whether in national or local politics, and who had now paid the price for their notoriety In times of crisis and scarcity, the usual outcome is that anyone whose ego is big enough to think that he can lead or profit finds that they become a target for elimination. The folks who survive are the ones who focus on, well, surviving. We're headed for one of those times of crisis now, though most people don't want to admit it, and a lot of the people who are profiting off ill-gotten gains now may find that they don't live to enjoy it simply because it gives them a taste for profiteering that eventually makes them take stupid risks.
> not a single one actually launched. I think this represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how these AI tools are used most effectively: not to write software but to directly solve the problem you were going to solve with software. I used to not understand this and agreed with the "where is all the shovelware" comments, but now I've realized the real shift is not from automating software creation, but replacing the need for it in the first place. It's clear that we're still awhile away from this being really understood and exploited. People are still confusingly building webapps that aren't necessary. Here's two, somewhat related, examples I've come across (I spend a lot of time on image/video generation in my free time): A web service that automatically creates "headshots" for you, and another that will automatically create TikTok videos for you. I have bespoke AI versions of both of these I built myself in an afternoon, running locally, creating content for prices that simply can't be matched by anyone trying to build a SaaS company out of these ideas. What people are thinking: "I know, I can use AI to build a SaaS startup the sells content!" But building a SaaS company still requires real software since it has to scale to multiple users and use cases. What more and more people are realizing is "I can created the content for basically free on my desktop, now I need to figure out how to leverage that content". I still haven't cracked the code for creating a rockstar TikTok channel, but it's not because I'm blocked on the content end. Similarly I'm starting to see that we're still not thinking about how to reorganize software teams to maximally exploit AI. Right now I see lots of engineers doing software the old way with an AI powered exo-skeleton. We know what this results in: massive PRs that clog up the whole process, and small bugs that creep up later. So long as we divide labor into hyper focused roles, this will persist. What I'm increasingly seeing is that to leverage AI properly we need to re-think how these roles actually work, since now one person can be much responsible for a much larger surface area rather than just doing one thing (arguably) faster.
Jesus Christ finally. I'm not joking when I say that the old text tool wasn't simply bad, it was THE WORST text tool I ever used. If you had a dark theme and made the text black, you literally couldn't see the text you were editing! I believe the last feature Krita needs to become a decent design tool would be fixing the layer styles so you can add the same style multiple times to the same layer (and if possible better bevel and 3D text tools). An immense number of designs are not much more than multiple strokes or "slightly" 3D text. Multiple strokes can be done in Krita in a very complicated and impractical way (you can do it by adding the layer style to a group, but with too many strokes the rounding errors make the outer strokes "flat," so the "correct" way would be to add the largest stroke first and then use clones to add the inner strokes). Photopea (a free online editor) supports both of these. My opinion is that Krita has a tremendous amount of potential to serve a free and open source application for several niche use cases, but it's routinely held back by lacking "that one feature the user will need." Probably because everyone still thinks it's just an application for illustration and can't be used for image editing or design. Animation is probably the most obvious one. Krita has an entire curves-based timeline editor, but the integration is so poor that it can only be used to animate opacity and the simplest type of transforms (translate, rotate, scale). That's an incredible waste considering it has cage transform, perspective transform, etc. All the non-destructive filters already have the code to serialize their settings to XML and back, but somehow those settings can't be animated? The liquefy transform, by far the most powerful, can't be animated. If transform masks had opacity and you could animate that, even that could be extremely useful, but they don't so they can't be animated in general. Layer styles are another integration problem. Many users don't know they exist because they're hidden in the context menu. Krita already has filter masks. It doesn't even need a separate UI for layer styles, the styles could just be filters instead, then they would be able to get drag-n-dropped around and you could add multiple of the same to a single layer. Apparently this is because they want compatibility with Photoshop, but you could just convert Krita filter masks into Photoshop styles in the save step, so I don't really understand the problem. Naturally if the filter settings ever became animatable, that would mean layer styles would NOT be animatable in virtue of them not being filters, which would suck a lot. By the way, I haven't tested the new version yet but Krita ALREADY has a color overlay layer style. So it looks like they simply... duplicated a feature they already had? Also the UI looks very similar to Clip Studio Paint, but a key difference in CSP is that single-color layers use 8 bit pixels instead of full 32 bit RGBA. I'm afraid this UI I'm seeing in the video is going to mislead some users into creating dozens of 32 bit layers with color overlay for easy color management and then end up with much worse performance than they would have in similar software. It also seems the color overlay "mask" behaves in a way that is completely different from literally every other mask in the software. I guess I'll have to download it to know for sure.
My assumption would be that the attacker builds missiles based on the defenses they want to defeat. If you have no defenses, maybe the defender builds 1,000 missiles. If you have 1,000 interceptors with 100% accuracy, then maybe the defender builds 2,000 missiles. This is why the superpowers mostly scrapped their ICBM defenses in the 70s. The technology worked fine. It's totally doable with 1970s technology if you're willing to put nuclear warheads on the interceptors. But for every ICBM interceptor you built, the other side could build another ICBM for the same cost or less. And you need more than one interceptor per ICBM since they can fail and the each interceptor only covers a small area. Add in multiple warheads on a single missile and decoys and suddenly you might need 10x or more. So the USA gave up on the idea of covering the entire country with interceptors, deployed a few interceptors to protect some missile silos, then shut it down after less than a year. The USSR built out a system to protect Moscow and only Moscow, which is still operational today. However, the British were able to maintain the ability to defeat that system and destroy Moscow with a single submarine, all on their own, never mind what the USA would throw at it. If you have a certain amount of stuff you can build and you're deciding what to do with that capacity, it's not at all clear that missile interceptors are a good use of that capacity even if you're protecting objects that cost orders of magnitude more than the interceptors cost. It works if you're defending against a far less capable adversary (Israel's Iron Dome against Hamas, USA's GBI system against North Korea) but not with an enemy that's even vaguely close to being a peer.
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