Look around the room. The reason why NASA ended the Apollo program is because the American public 1) was never as committed to Apollo as younger people seem to believe they were with most people being indifferent to it and plenty of people being outright against it as wasteful, and 2) even the modicum of support it had on the Apollo 11th landing was gone by the next mission. Famously, Apollo 13 was notable for regaining the attention of the public, which it almost certainly would not have had if it weren't for their lives being on the line. The public has almost never voted for more funding to NASA. The Kennedy Administration put a shitload of money into NASA hands, without real public approval, for geopolitical goals. It was never for public anything. The public just cannot be assed to spend even a few dollars on things they don't like, and they've never cared for generic space science. The general public can in fact do whatever they can manage to fund, including through enormous debt, which is how we spent like $40 trillion on stupid wars in the desert for no reason. I was never really in agreement with doing that, but for some reason such a suggestion was "Unamerican", as claimed by the very people bitching about the debt right now. Who just so happened to be mostly the same people voting on doing those stupid wars. It doesn't matter how many games you want to play with how "the system" makes it hard to vote for the right people, or how the incentives are constructed, but even in such a system, the Trump power bloc is still based around voting people out if they get in his way. The power always comes down to voting. The people in our government do all the shenanigans they do because it's how you capture the votes. They pander to giant businesses because those businesses pay for their political ads, which always go up in price so that only the largest businesses can afford to control them. But politicians do it because those ads get them the votes. If just doing their job better got them more votes, they would do that, or be replaced with someone who would. The powers that be are the voters, with caveats and nuance.
> It's hard to imagine, since the moonlandings, if America kept its pace in space exploration ... The collapse of the USSR was the worst thing to happen to NASA. I would suggest a watch of "We Stopped Dreaming" https://youtu.be/CbIZU8cQWXc A less angry version (video and transcript of Neil DeGrasse Tyson testifying before the Senate's Science Committee on 7 March 2012) https://ifsa.my/articles/we-stopped-dreaming-by-neil-degrasse-tyson/ Let’s be honest with one anther. We went to the Moon because we were at war with the Soviet Union. To think otherwise is delusion, leading some to suppose the only reason we’re not on Mars already is the absence of visionary leaders, or of political will, or of money. No. When you perceive your security to be at risk, money flows like rivers to protect us. But there exists another driver of great ambitions, almost as potent as war. That’s the promise of wealth. Fully funded missions to Mars and beyond, commanded by astronauts who, today, are in middle school, would reboot America’s capacity to innovate as no other force in society can. What matters here are not spin-offs (although I could list a few: Accurate affordable Lasik surgery, Scratch resistant lenses, Cordless power tools, Tempurfoam, Cochlear implants, the drive to miniaturize of electronics…) but cultural shifts in how the electorate views the role of science and technology in our daily lives. As the 1970s drew to a close, we stopped advancing a space frontier. The “tomorrow” articles faded. And we spent the next several decades coasting on the innovations conceived by earlier dreamers. They knew that seemingly impossible things were possible—the older among them had enabled, and the younger among them had witnessed the Apollo voyages to the Moon—the greatest adventure there ever was. If all you do is coast, eventually you slow down, while others catch up and pass you by.
I think one of AI’s biggest effects is simply that it makes people realize even high-income professionals can lose their positions. This also follows from how current LLMs work. In practice, when I use them in domains I already understand, they can produce very high-quality results. But in domains I do not know well, the results can be poor, and the bigger problem is that I may not even be able to judge how poor they are. So my conclusion is that AI will reduce the number of jobs, but it will not eliminate the need for people. In education, the value of memorization may decline in the AI era. We may instead place more emphasis on domain modeling, problem framing, or the ability to choose and use tools effectively. But the more fundamental issue is that the IT industry may simply lose the capacity to employ as many people as it once did. More precisely, I mean white-collar labor. I think the deeper cause is a K-shaped economy in which the lower and middle classes become poorer. When ordinary consumers become poorer, one of the first things they tend to cut back on is discretionary spending, including spending on many kinds of IT services. The core infrastructure layer is different. Large incumbents such as Microsoft and Google already dominate much of it, and they are likely to be more resilient. Search, video consumption, and a few other essential digital services will also remain strong. But many other IT services are, in practice, discretionary goods. Those companies may be hit much harder if consumers have less purchasing power. People talk constantly about productivity these days, but we were already living in an age of overproduction before AI. AI is moving us from overproduction into an era of explosive production. The problem is that production can expand far faster than people’s ability to consume. The cycle is supposed to be: *products → revenue → employment* But if the consumers who are supposed to support that revenue become poorer, the cycle weakens. Productivity alone cannot solve that. I agree with the author that academics need to move beyond treating papers as the primary unit of achievement. Much of what the article argues is reasonable. But there is another difficulty. Most academics built their reputations through papers. They use that reputation to obtain speaking opportunities, consulting work, grants, and other forms of income and status. Even if one person decides to move beyond the paper-centered system, it is difficult to change much unless the larger incentive structure changes as well. My view is that IT workers have, in a sense, been working to reduce their own jobs since long before AI. The more infrastructure becomes centralized, the more peripheral and smaller companies are squeezed first. AI is simply another example of that process. Until recently, people often said that highly skilled IT professionals were difficult to replace. AI changes that perception. Even when it does not fully replace knowledge workers, it can put significant downward pressure on the wage premium attached to specialized knowledge. I do think AI will raise productivity. But companies will also reduce headcount accordingly. And if purchasing power becomes increasingly concentrated among a smaller group of people, product development itself may become more biased toward the preferences of those few consumers. That can create another negative feedback loop. The claim that universities can simply choose important problems that are cheap to validate is also more difficult than it sounds. If validation itself increasingly depends on AI, and universities cannot afford to own enough GPUs, then they remain dependent on large AI companies. That dependency will inevitably influence which research problems are practical to pursue. Any research program is constrained by the institutions and funding sources that make the research possible. Always. At the same time, I actually agree with the author that universities will become more important. People often talk about “skill” as though it were some pure and independent quantity, but in my experience hiring rarely works that way. If one candidate is highly capable without a degree and another is equally capable with a degree, employers will usually prefer the credentialed candidate. More broadly, people tend to hire those with whom they feel cultural familiarity and trust. University networks provide exactly that. Alumni often help other alumni, directly or indirectly. So I think universities may increasingly become both social institutions and stronger elite-training clubs. For someone like me, coming from a poorer country and without much money, there may not be many choices in that system anyway. Still, I think the author’s argument is far too optimistic.
> The other story arrives by email. PhD students who cannot wait to graduate, because they want to join a frontier lab and they have concluded that research in academia is meaningless. They are counting the years until they can leave. > I believe both stories are wrong, and wrong for the same reason. They assume the future of research belongs to whoever has the most GPUs. As a current grad student in an mlsys lab, the sentiment is definitely true. However, I think the root cause is almost certainly not the lack of GPUs in academia, at least it's not the complete reason. The problem is the most important innovations really come from the industry right now. If you want to work on LLM inference serving, it is the frontier labs or hyperscalers that have the most incentives to solve the problems because improving the TPOT by 1% can save them tons of money. It is also much easier to catch up with the fast-growing field if you are in the industry because you get to talk to so many insiders (at least that has been my experience during the summer internship). Papers only amplify this problem. Traditionally, academia is supposed to work on radical ideas that industries don't want to try. In recent years, these ideas are harder to get in as papers because the quality of peer review at top conferences is awful nowadays. I'm not even going to talk about the AI slops in research papers and their artifacts. Guess why I'm posting on HN right now instead of working? Finally, it's very disappointing to see that a professor at top school is so careless about editing stuff created by LLM. He might be busy, but the number of people that get discouraged by the LLM writing style will hurt his purpose of promoting the open source week. And apparently some people from industry had a better sense of that [1]. Yet another example of why some people prefer industry to academia these days. [1] https://rfd.shared.oxide.computer/rfd/0576
>So, where do you draw the line? Do you accept having an OS? Yes I accept using an OS usually, I guess there's much more than could fit on a single catchy sentence, but there's a clear policy. Operating System is the biggest exception, for Windows it's pretty simple to carve out everything that is manufactured by Microsoft itself. But for the main Linux OS (Debian/RHEL), I include everything that is distributed by the main package manager (apt/yum) as allowed by the OS policy exception. (On Windows, this is equivalent to adding software packaged and signed by microsoft, like Git). Alternative package managers like flatpak or snap are against my personal policy, not only are they very bloaty, but they kind of break the OS monopoly and push towards less safe supply chains, if it's not in apt/yum, then I don't use it. > So I assume you run directly on BIOS or UEFI? I have gone that route, but only experimentally, it's not very hard to get C compiled binaries to run and interface with keyboard and display through BIOS, but there's a lot of extra work that needs to be done incrementally, in order to use features in the sequence that they have historically been available, like 16 bit, 32 bit, 64 bits, 4GB memory. If you think of Wirth's law, this might actually be an effective long-term pacing strategy. But I'm not that hardcore personally, not for lack of want, in a professional settings I pull towards the pragmatic side and start conceding to stuff like using an OS, maybe using one or two packages. I would probably revisit booting directly to binary if any startup I work with hits a home run and needs to upgrade to at least 10k+ concurrent users. It's like one step removed from an ASIC, which is a stage almost no company enters, but I would have definitely have passed the baton at that stage, custom hardware is another discipline. >But even those are fairly sizable on modern systems. Well not BIOS, but UEFI and device drives certainly are. BIOS would just be some (mostly unwritten) standards on how to initialize, then it dissapears. Of course hardware itself is a dependency, and I'm definitely not going to be summoning computing from heat, sand, and electricity, but my line is definitely at the OS and above. One final exception that wasn't mentioned is the programming language and its 'built in libraries'. I use the programming language along with its standard distribution. For Python (my main language), that means I don't use pip, but I might use 'import sockets' (it's almost the same as using cffi and glibc anyways). There's an analogue in almost all languages, node with npm, java with maven, php with composer, I just don't add those kinds of dependencies if I have control over it. I chmod ugo-rwx requirements.txt to avoid other engineers from adding leftpadisms. That's not to say that it never happens, maybe even I imported Flask to meet a deadline, and maybe there's that perfect library from a good source that someone else suggests and it gets accepted, but it doesn't hurt to add some friction, it catches a lot of trash packages from being added to the foundation of a startup, which give almost no benefits at great expense over the lifecycle of the core
The de minimis system was in theory to allow developing countries to be able to take advantage of their very low labor costs and also to save the receiving country the inspection costs. Mostly countries ("third world") have time limited agreements. Tariffs were about originally about protection of local manufacturing. But both these changed with the politics and greed. China has cheap labor costs but superb management of manufacturing. Politics are now simple. China has 3 times as many consumers as the US. China refuses to float its currency, so the major currencies can't effectively export their inflation to them like they do with other trading partners by manipulating their interest rates. The US dollar is the defacto world currency but that means countries must have reserves of US dollars. Those reserves are not piles of US bank notes they are stocks, bonds real estate in the US. These foreign reserves mean influence in the economy. The current round of tariff wars are all about long term debt and attempting to reduce the long term bond rate. But countries wont wear that because their reserves are partly in bonds. So retaliation in the form of "custom fees" occur. More than likely, the EU fees and charges are aimed at China. Already China leads the world in production in many important areas (nuclear reactors, batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels). Countries can see China becoming (if not already) the worlds biggest economy with the political power that comes with it. Sadly, its the small manufactures & businesses that suffer the most, but thats democracy and capitalist system in action
One example is Opencode. https://opencode.ai/v2/docs/console/models/ "Privacy# All these models are hosted in the US. Providers follow a zero-retention policy and do not use your data for model training, with the following exceptions: Big Pickle: During its free period, collected data may be used to improve the model. DeepSeek V4 Flash Free: During its free period, collected data may be used to improve the model. MiMo-V2.5 Free: During its free period, collected data may be used to improve the model. Laguna S 2.1 Free: During its free period, collected data may be used to improve the model. Ling-3.0-tiny Free: During its free period, collected data may be used to improve the model. LongCat-2.0 Free: During its free period, collected data may be used to improve the model. North Mini Code Free: During its free period, collected data may be retained and used to improve the model. Do not submit personal or confidential data. See the provider’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Nemotron 3 Ultra Free (NVIDIA free endpoints): Trial use only — do not submit personal or confidential data. Your use is logged for security purposes and to improve NVIDIA products and services. The logged session data for improvement purposes is not linked to your identity or any persistent identifier. For more information about data processing practices, see the Privacy Policy. By interacting with this endpoint, you consent to the collection, recording, and use of such information and the NVIDIA API Trial Terms of Service."
Bookmarks died because most humans are allergic to having to do bookkeeping and cleanup tasks that are incidental to what they really want to do. We see that over and over again, in a bunch of non-tech fields. My kids never want to clean up their toys; they will pull out new ones, but it is a struggle to get them into the habit of putting the old ones away first. My parents used to keep a notebook with every gas fill-up they made; nobody born after about 1990 does that anymore. We were taught how to balance a checkbook in elementary school; basically nobody does that anymore, we put everything on autopay and if you are diligent you check a statement or import it into Quicken once a month (most people don't even do that, they have no idea what they are spending and predictably, usually no money left over). GMail succeeded because instead of putting your mail in folders, you just leave it in one lump with Google and rely on full-text search. A lot of Zoomer computer users don't even know what files and folders are, they just use apps , which take them straight to what they want to do and don't offer things like possession of your own data. Back in the (~early 2010s) days when Google still allowed internal innovation, there were recurrent demos produced by engineers of full-text search over your web history, though of course it was your web history as stored by Google and none of this was local. It never became a product, largely because users are too lazy to go to a separate search product just for your history, or because they're too lazy to check a separate box saying "Search my history". Instead I think web history became a ranking input to general search and it would mix in results that you frequently visited to the general results, which honestly I think was a more useful approach.
I've written several times here about all the mistakes that Sun made during the 00s that doomed it. Among the many mistakes it made are: - Cancelling -if briefly- Solaris on x86 in 2002. This killed Solaris in the minds of many who didn't want to be locked into Sun for SPARC. - Failing to make a deal with Google in 2002. Apparently Sun insisted on knowing how many servers Google had, something that Google considered a high-value secret, so Sun failed to make a deal with Google, so Google ended up using Linux and contributing to Linux. This was a tremendous mind-share disaster -- it's hard to overestimate the damage done by this. - Closing Sun PS (professional services). Bad bad move, possibly the worst of them. - Not giving up on J2ME earlier -- it's not the sort of thing that could last forever, and Steve Jobs killed it with the iPhone. This was a case of vendor lock-in clouding Sun's decision making. - Failure to recognize that Sun needed to become a systems company, not a CPU company. - Failure to respond to Active Directory. This was yet another case of vendor lock-in clouding Sun's decision making: the Sun DS product team was milking their existing customers more than they wanted to go after more business with a sustainable strategy. - UltraSPARC was more than a decade too late to make up for SPARC falling way behind x86_64. Sun needed to give up on SPARC, but again, vendor lock-in sounds sweet but turns out to be poison. - Failure to make a deal with Apple for it to use ZFS in OS X. - The MySQL purchase. WTF, this was horrible and stupid. The only interesting effect of this was to make Sun a target of acquisition for Oracle. But of course, it turns out that Oracle -a company built on building mind-share- had become too blinded by vendor lock-in just like Sun, so... There were numerous other mistakes along the way. These are the most salient, for me anyway. What's shocking is how long it took Sun to fail under those circumstances! Also shocking is how much amazing stuff came out of Solaris engineering and the systems division!
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